Assumption Map

What it is

What must hold for it to work. Your mentee lists an idea’s assumptions and rates each for importance and uncertainty.

When to send it

Send it before building or spending. It helps most before time or money goes into an idea.

• A new ideabefore the first build
• A big beta hire, a launch, a price
• A stalled planwhen nobody knows what to test

Filling it in

Twenty minutes, one idea. Write the idea, list what must be true, then plan tests.

1. List and rate each oneRate how important it is and how little you know.
2. See the top-right cornerImportant and untested ones sit there; drag a dot to adjust.
3. Plan a test for the riskiestDecide what counts as success before you start.

Reading the answers

Start in the top-right corner. Important and untested assumptions are the ones to test first.

• Riskiest assumptionthe highest score out of 25
• Important and untestedhow many sit in the corner
• Tests with a success criterionsuccess decided before the test

Questions to ask

Ask about the ratings. People who ask follow-up questions are liked more (Huang and others, 2017).

• Which assumption would end the idea if it turned out false?then: is it in the corner?
• Which rating are you least sure of, and why?then: what would change it?
• What result would make you change the plan?then: can you write it down now?

Why it works

In a randomised trial with 116 startups, founders taught to state hypotheses and test them did better and changed course more often. This map is the first step of that approach.

Sources

• Camuffo, Cordova, Gambardella & Spina (2020). A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. Management Science 66(2):564–586.

How a tool works on Mentornity

1. 1The mentor picks a tool from the library and sends it with a short message.
2. 2The mentee fills it in step by step; the answers are saved as they go.
3. 3Both see the answers, comment on any part and agree the next steps.
4. 4Only the two of them see the answers, not the program admins.

Guides for both sides

• Assumption Map for MentorsFor mentors and coaches: when to send the Assumption Map, how to read the riskiest assumptions, which questions to ask and how to agree one test.
• Assumption Map for MenteesFor mentees and founders: what the Assumption Map is, how to fill it in, where to find it and what your mentor does with it.

More tools: Venture

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